Vice President Kamala Harris has consolidated Democratic support in the days since President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential election, and polls show a tight race in November against former President Donald Trump.
Harris has appeared to secure enough delegates to win her party's nomination during the Democratic National Convention (DNC) next month. She received the endorsem*nt of Biden after he stepped aside from the campaign following weeks of pressure from other Democrats concerned about his ability to win the election amid floundering poll numbers.
Harris' poll numbers prior to his withdrawal similarly trailed the former president, but her supporters argue she would be more capable of running a robust campaign that could win over swing voters while also building Democratic enthusiasm.
It remains to be seen exactly how Harris at the top of the ticket will affect the campaign in the key battleground states that will determine the election results, as Trump presently holds a lead in each of those swing states.
However, some polls released since Biden's withdrawal have seen the race tighten between Harris and Trump on the national level, though pollsters have not released surveys for most states since the campaign shake-up. Meanwhile, Democrats have noted Harris' strong fundraising and an increase in excitement among their base.
This map shows where Harris and Trump are leading in the most recent polls.
States where either Democrats or Republicans are viewed as easy favorites are colored either a dull red or blue. Polls for Harris may not be available for those states, but they were won by their respective parties by double digits in 2020 and are not viewed as competitive.
Competitive states are a more vibrant color. This includes the seven most competitive battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
It also includes states where polls have been in the higher single digits, even though one party is still viewed as favored to win. Those states include Florida and Texas for Republicans, and New Jersey for Democrats.
Four potentially competitive states—Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and New Mexico—do not have enough recent polls to say whether Harris or Trump are favored at this point, though Democrats are generally viewed as favorites in those states.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Kamala Harris Key State Polls
Georgia is one swing state where a poll has been released following Biden's withdrawal, and it delivered some hopeful news to Democrats even though Trump still had a lead.
The Landmark Communications poll found Trump leading by only 1.3 percentage points (48 percent to 46.7 percent). It was conducted on July 22 among 400 likely voters in the state where Biden won by less than a quarter of a percentage point in 2020.
Although Trump won the poll, it was considerably closer than other polls conducted previously in the state, which showed Trump with a lead in the higher single digits against Biden.
In Arizona, a poll hasn't been released since before Biden's exit from the race. The most recent one was conducted by Public Policy Polling from July 19 to 20 among 736 registered voters. Trump led the poll by 6 points (46 percent to 40 percent). Biden won Arizona by about 0.3 percentage points in 2020.
A Public Policy Polling survey of Michigan, conducted from July 17 to July 18, found Harris trailing Trump by 5 points (46 percent to 41 percent). Biden won Michigan by nearly 3 points in 2020.
The most recent poll of Nevada, seen as one of the most challenging swing states for Democrats this year, showed Harris trailing Trump by 10 points (50 percent to 40 percent). It was conducted among 800 likely voters from July 15 to July 16. Biden won Nevada by more than 2 points in 2020.
A Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina, conducted among 573 registered voters from July 19 to July 20, showed Harris trailing Trump by 4 points (48 percent to 44) percent. Trump won North Carolina by 1.3 points in 2020.
A July 17 to July 18 Public Policy Polling survey of Pennsylvania, conducted among 624 registered voters, showed Trump leading by 2 points (45 percent to 43 percent). Biden won the state by 1.2 points in 2020.
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In Wisconsin, where Harris campaigned on Tuesday, the most recent poll showed a tie in the state. The Civiqs poll, conducted among 514 registered voters from July 13 to July 16, found Harris and Trump each receiving 48 percent of the vote.
In Virginia, polls about Harris are unclear. An Emerson College poll conducted from July 14 to July 15 among 1,000 registered voters showed Trump up by 2 points (47 percent to 45 percent). Elsewhere, a New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted among 661 registered voters from July 9 to July 12, found Harris leading by 4 points (48 percent to 44 percent).
Most forecasters view Virginia as leaning Democrat.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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